The Next Perfect Storm?

There is plenty of buzz travelling across social media about Hurricane Sandy, and perhaps with good reason. A large swath of the East Coast could be affected between now and next Wednesday. The 12Z GFS puts the center of Sandy right over New York City on Tuesday. This is still five days out, so residents and travelers should pay close attention to changes in official forecasts.

There are two ingredients that are important to this forecast: a trough forming over the Midwest and Sandy herself. If the trough moves faster than guidance is showing, Sandy will go out to sea. Otherwise, Sandy will recurve and move inland.Different models have different solutions for where both of these will end up.

10/25 12Z GFS at 93 hours, when this model has Sandy furthest out to sea.

10/25 12Z GFS at 132 hours, when this model puts Sandy right over NYC.

It's still early to get a clear picture from NAM, but the picture is no less reassuring.

10/25 12Z NAM, hour 84. Bringing Sandy closer to land faster than the GFS.

Looking at both of these models (at 84 hours) we see two things:

• The location of the trough's deepest point will more than likely be somewhere in Tennessee.
• The central pressure is likely to be about 970 mb (NAM gives 972, GFS gives 968).

Currently, Sandy has a central pressure of 964 mb, so it appears that Sandy may weaken over the next few days. However, by the time the storm reaches the coast, it may still have winds exceeding 70 mph. Anybody with interests along the East Coast should keep an eye out for official statements, as this is a serious storm.