Crunchy Numbers!

Weekend rain possible for Texas. GFS 9/26/12 12Z Hour 81

The first day of weather observations for my two cities are in! In Chicopee Falls, the forecast got the high temperature exactly (73) and over-forecast the low by 3 degrees (37 forecast, 34 observed). In Fort Worth,  the forecast was under by 5 degrees for the high (90 forecast, 95 observed), and under 1 degree on the low (70 forecast, 71 observed). As the days go by, I'll have a better set of corrections to use to adjust my forecast.

Now for your updated forecast:

Chicopee Falls (KCEF):

The temperature trend hasn't changed much from the last forecast, so the focus is going to be on the rain for Friday into Saturday. The chance for rain is 70-80%, more likely than not. Also, the rain intensity has been upgraded to a quarter- to half-inch each day. Light showers are still in the forecast for Sunday and Monday.

Fort Worth (KFTW):

Hot weather continues for Texas. The next two days are forecast to hit 90, but with the five-degree bump mentioned above, we could see temperatures well into the 90's. A strong cold front brings showers and thunderstorms in for Saturday, but there are still some doubts on the rate of rainfall. Once the front passes, temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler for Sunday. Temperatures will moderate to the lower 80's for the start of the next work week.

A Not So Buttery Spread

Day two! Let's get right to it:

Chicopee Falls (KCEF):

The temperature trend for the next week is much the same from the last forecast: middle 60's throughout. What has changed is the distribution of rainfall between Wednesday and Sunday. Instead of separate rain events for the two days, it looks to be on-and-off showers through out. The heaviest amounts seem to have shifted from Sunday to Friday and Saturday, somewhat better news for the conclusion of The Big E on Sunday.

Fort Worth (KFTW):

The chances of rain have dried up, so to say. There was about an inch of rain forecast, but the GFS has fallen to trace, and the chance of precipitation has fallen from 57% to 27%. 

The next three days are forecast to hit 90 degrees for highs. Saturday also looks like a toss-up for temperature, with GFS currently forecasting 89 for a high. Temperatures should settle into the middle 80's for the start of next week.

First, Foremost, Format

Forecast Regions

Hello everybody. This is the first official forecast for my weather blog! Before I dive in, allow me to explain my format.

Each post I make Monday through Thursday will consist of two seven-Day forecasts. These are for cities from two different regions above. To get a good variety of cities, the regions can not be in the same "row" or "column". For example, if I am doing a city in the Northeast, I can't do a city in the Southeast or the Northwest.

Also, these cities will be on a rotating schedule. Each city will have a four-week run, offset two weeks from the other city. Chicopee Falls, MA will be my first city, and to make the offset, I'll be forecasting here for only two week. The second city will be Fort Worth, TX, and I'll forecast for this location for four weeks. By default, the third city (in a couple weeks) will have to be in the Northwest region.

Without further ado, here are the first forecast for the blog:

Chicopee Falls, MA (KCEF)

Temperatures continue their Fall to seasonable (pun intended) over the next week. Heading into Tuesday morning, some places will see morning lows in the middle and upper 30's courtesy of a clear sky overnight. Clouds will start building into the region early Wednesday morning to keep low temperatures in the lower 50's. Highs for Tuesday and Wednesday are in the lower 70's.

Showers move into the area for late Wednesday into early Thursday, but by no means a washout. Friday and Saturday look cool and dry with low dew points and highs in the middle 60's. The next chance for showers will be Sunday. More on that rain maker when the day gets closer.

Fort Worth, TX (KFTW)

Heat and humidity are in the forecast for at least the next three days. Highs should hover about the 90-degree mark with dew points in the lower 60's through Thursday. Rain enters the region for Friday through Sunday (heaviest on Saturday). Highs will be in the lower and middle 80's for the remainder of the forecast, with lows in the middle 60's

Welcome to KyleWX (in Alpha)

Hello Everybody!

I started this blog to practice forecasting as I look for a job in Meteorology. It will also host updates for a full-fledged KyleWX website, which I started designing last month.

I should have things set-up here fairly soon. For now, it will have the blog and an about page, but I plan on adding a notes page (to share my college notes), and a programs page (to share my FORTRAN work). More pages will be made available as I see them necessary.

I'll post updated forecasts Monday through Thursday, unless a large-scale event (hurricane, blizzard, etc.) prompts me to do otherwise. I'll also have my preliminary snowfall forecast posted here by the end of the month.

I look forward to interacting with everybody, meteorologist and lay-person alike!

-Kyle Johnson