The Next Perfect Storm?

There is plenty of buzz travelling across social media about Hurricane Sandy, and perhaps with good reason. A large swath of the East Coast could be affected between now and next Wednesday. The 12Z GFS puts the center of Sandy right over New York City on Tuesday. This is still five days out, so residents and travelers should pay close attention to changes in official forecasts.

There are two ingredients that are important to this forecast: a trough forming over the Midwest and Sandy herself. If the trough moves faster than guidance is showing, Sandy will go out to sea. Otherwise, Sandy will recurve and move inland.Different models have different solutions for where both of these will end up.

10/25 12Z GFS at 93 hours, when this model has Sandy furthest out to sea.

10/25 12Z GFS at 132 hours, when this model puts Sandy right over NYC.

It's still early to get a clear picture from NAM, but the picture is no less reassuring.

10/25 12Z NAM, hour 84. Bringing Sandy closer to land faster than the GFS.

Looking at both of these models (at 84 hours) we see two things:

• The location of the trough's deepest point will more than likely be somewhere in Tennessee.
• The central pressure is likely to be about 970 mb (NAM gives 972, GFS gives 968).

Currently, Sandy has a central pressure of 964 mb, so it appears that Sandy may weaken over the next few days. However, by the time the storm reaches the coast, it may still have winds exceeding 70 mph. Anybody with interests along the East Coast should keep an eye out for official statements, as this is a serious storm.

Quakes and Shakes

Yesterday was an interesting day here in New England. A 4.0 Magnitude Earthquake struck in southern Maine and its effects were felt through out the region. Here in Springfield, MA, I probably wouldn't have noticed it unless my sister pointed out the shaking. Damages and injuries seem to be little to none from the event, which is the good news with this bit of excitement.

Also, Rafael is now out into the Canadian Maritimes. It lost its tropical characteristics and is expected to weaken/disipate over the next few days.

Quillayute, WA (KUIL)

Ladies and Gentlemen, Your Rainmaker. (NOAA Water Vapor)

A large ridge is funneling wet weather into the Pacific Northwest and rain is in the forecast for the next week (Extended GFS has no less than 96% probabilty of precipitation for each day the whole period). Highs will be in the middle 50's for Thursday and Friday, and in the lower 50's for the weekend and into the next week. Lows start off in the middle 40's and drop into the upper 30's over the next week.

Fort Worth, Texas (KFTW)

Fort Worth continues to be hot and dry, though there may be a chance for a shower on Monday. Right now, it looks to be minimal, but I will keep an eye on it (still five days out, but there is a 21% POP). We'll see highs in the upper 80's (perhaps 90 in some loactions) for Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, they'll be in the lower 80's. Lows will vary from 52 on Thursday to 70 on Monday.

Beneficial Rain Northwest

Hello everybody! It's a new week here at KyleWX and we are saying goodbye to Chicopee Falls and the Northeast region for now. As previously mentioned, the next region will have to be the Northwest. I have chosen this city to be Quillayute, WA. Also, we have another storm in the Atlantic named Rafael. Let's get to it.

Tropical Storm Rafael

Courtesy: NHC/NOAA

Tropical Storm Rafael is churning in the Atlantic, but is expected to stay away from the US Mainland. Bermuda will more than likely see heavy rain and rough surf as Rafael passes east of the island Tuesday afternoon. After Thursday, Rafael should become post-tropical as it heads into the northern Atlantic.

Quillayute, WA (KUIL)

Quillayute and virtually the whole of the Northwest Region will be seeing beneficial rains after a three-month dry streak. Thanks to a low off the Oregon coast, Quillayute could see another 3 to 5 inches before the week is through. High temperatures will beholding in the middle 50's for the duration.

Fort Worth, TX (KFTW)

Unlike the Northwest, the Southern Plains will be dry for the upcoming week. High pressure over New Mexico will keep rain out of the area. Dew points will also be comfortable, with even some lower 30's by mid-week. Highs in the lower 80's, Lows from the mid 50's to the mid 60's.

Site Progress Update #1

KyleWX (Beta) so far.

Hey everybody!

Just wanted to give a quick update on the progress of the full site. The stylesheet is pretty well configured. Right now, it's a matter of getting the hierarchy correct.

Each item on the menu bar above will be its own folder in the directory, each having its own index page. I'm in the middle of this reorganization now. However, this causes an issue with my JS advertisement generator. In the snapshot of the home page above, there is an ad on the left. This is generated by a script in the top folder of the directory. The way the script is written, pages not in the top folder can't access the image.

An easy fix for this would be to copy the ads into each sub-folder of the directory, but that may be space consuming should I have actual advertisers. I could fix the javascript to look in the top level, but that would cause an issue at the top level.

Today, I'll work on adding some simple conversion tools (temperature units, metric to standard etc.). I'll share more about these when they are ready.

Crunchy Numbers!

Weekend rain possible for Texas. GFS 9/26/12 12Z Hour 81

The first day of weather observations for my two cities are in! In Chicopee Falls, the forecast got the high temperature exactly (73) and over-forecast the low by 3 degrees (37 forecast, 34 observed). In Fort Worth,  the forecast was under by 5 degrees for the high (90 forecast, 95 observed), and under 1 degree on the low (70 forecast, 71 observed). As the days go by, I'll have a better set of corrections to use to adjust my forecast.

Now for your updated forecast:

Chicopee Falls (KCEF):

The temperature trend hasn't changed much from the last forecast, so the focus is going to be on the rain for Friday into Saturday. The chance for rain is 70-80%, more likely than not. Also, the rain intensity has been upgraded to a quarter- to half-inch each day. Light showers are still in the forecast for Sunday and Monday.

Fort Worth (KFTW):

Hot weather continues for Texas. The next two days are forecast to hit 90, but with the five-degree bump mentioned above, we could see temperatures well into the 90's. A strong cold front brings showers and thunderstorms in for Saturday, but there are still some doubts on the rate of rainfall. Once the front passes, temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler for Sunday. Temperatures will moderate to the lower 80's for the start of the next work week.

A Not So Buttery Spread

Day two! Let's get right to it:

Chicopee Falls (KCEF):

The temperature trend for the next week is much the same from the last forecast: middle 60's throughout. What has changed is the distribution of rainfall between Wednesday and Sunday. Instead of separate rain events for the two days, it looks to be on-and-off showers through out. The heaviest amounts seem to have shifted from Sunday to Friday and Saturday, somewhat better news for the conclusion of The Big E on Sunday.

Fort Worth (KFTW):

The chances of rain have dried up, so to say. There was about an inch of rain forecast, but the GFS has fallen to trace, and the chance of precipitation has fallen from 57% to 27%. 

The next three days are forecast to hit 90 degrees for highs. Saturday also looks like a toss-up for temperature, with GFS currently forecasting 89 for a high. Temperatures should settle into the middle 80's for the start of next week.

First, Foremost, Format

Forecast Regions

Hello everybody. This is the first official forecast for my weather blog! Before I dive in, allow me to explain my format.

Each post I make Monday through Thursday will consist of two seven-Day forecasts. These are for cities from two different regions above. To get a good variety of cities, the regions can not be in the same "row" or "column". For example, if I am doing a city in the Northeast, I can't do a city in the Southeast or the Northwest.

Also, these cities will be on a rotating schedule. Each city will have a four-week run, offset two weeks from the other city. Chicopee Falls, MA will be my first city, and to make the offset, I'll be forecasting here for only two week. The second city will be Fort Worth, TX, and I'll forecast for this location for four weeks. By default, the third city (in a couple weeks) will have to be in the Northwest region.

Without further ado, here are the first forecast for the blog:

Chicopee Falls, MA (KCEF)

Temperatures continue their Fall to seasonable (pun intended) over the next week. Heading into Tuesday morning, some places will see morning lows in the middle and upper 30's courtesy of a clear sky overnight. Clouds will start building into the region early Wednesday morning to keep low temperatures in the lower 50's. Highs for Tuesday and Wednesday are in the lower 70's.

Showers move into the area for late Wednesday into early Thursday, but by no means a washout. Friday and Saturday look cool and dry with low dew points and highs in the middle 60's. The next chance for showers will be Sunday. More on that rain maker when the day gets closer.

Fort Worth, TX (KFTW)

Heat and humidity are in the forecast for at least the next three days. Highs should hover about the 90-degree mark with dew points in the lower 60's through Thursday. Rain enters the region for Friday through Sunday (heaviest on Saturday). Highs will be in the lower and middle 80's for the remainder of the forecast, with lows in the middle 60's

Welcome to KyleWX (in Alpha)

Hello Everybody!

I started this blog to practice forecasting as I look for a job in Meteorology. It will also host updates for a full-fledged KyleWX website, which I started designing last month.

I should have things set-up here fairly soon. For now, it will have the blog and an about page, but I plan on adding a notes page (to share my college notes), and a programs page (to share my FORTRAN work). More pages will be made available as I see them necessary.

I'll post updated forecasts Monday through Thursday, unless a large-scale event (hurricane, blizzard, etc.) prompts me to do otherwise. I'll also have my preliminary snowfall forecast posted here by the end of the month.

I look forward to interacting with everybody, meteorologist and lay-person alike!

-Kyle Johnson